International Monetary Fund Cautions Against AI Bubble Threats
The International Monetary Fund has warned that concerns about a potential bubble in the artificial intelligence sector still pose a possible threat to the global economy, despite the current positive performance of economic growth.
Global growth forecasts for 2026 have been raised
In its latest World Economic Outlook report, released on Monday, the IMF raised its forecast for global economic growth this year to 3.3%, up from a previous estimate of 3.1% in October, while leaving its forecast for 2027 unchanged at 3.2%.
Artificial intelligence: between supporting growth and threatening stability
The IMF explained that some factors currently contributing to global economic stability, such as the rise of artificial intelligence and easing trade tensions, could become sources of risk if their effects were to reverse unexpectedly.
The report noted that the significant increase in technology spending, particularly in artificial intelligence, in North America and Asia, is a key driver of current economic growth.
Potential risks if technology fails to meet expectations
Despite these advantages, the IMF warned that if artificial intelligence fails to deliver tangible productivity gains, it could lead to a sharp correction in financial markets, which could have repercussions in other sectors and erode household wealth.
Warning against concentrating investments in one sector
In an official blog post, Tobias Adrian and Pierre-Olivier Gorenchas of the International Monetary Fund stated that the global economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of trade disruptions, but this resilience masks vulnerabilities stemming from the high concentration of investments in the technology sector.
They added:
"AI-driven investment holds significant transformative potential, but it also carries financial and structural risks that require careful and vigilant management."
Promising opportunities… but with caution
The IMF explained that the current technological boom could contribute to raising global economic activity by up to 0.3% this year, provided the promised productivity improvements are realized.
However, the failure of AI companies to generate profits commensurate with their high valuations could lead to a decline in investor confidence and increase the likelihood of sharp fluctuations in global markets.
